My biggest doubt for the success of the Apple Watch stems from the replacement cycle. How often does Apple want consumers to upgrade their Apple Watch? Why would a high-end consumer spend over $1,000 on an $18k Apple Watch if its technology will be outdated within two years?

But Nicolas Schobinger brings up an interesting idea:

How often does one need to buy an ‘eternal’ product? How often would you buy ‘ephemeral’? Look at iPod, iPhone, and even computers in general. Technology advancements and rapid innovation cycles make you lust for the newest gadget. And that’s just it: Ephemeral product lures customers to the next best thing.

I can easily imagine, that Apple could extract a higher lifetime customer value with its iWatch Edition, than the ‘eternal’ brands of Swiss watchmaking.

I could imagine that the Apple iWatch Edition will generate a lot of repeat buyers. A good trade-in program would recycle your precious metal and refund that to you. You could keep the straps. The price for your repeat purchase could be then a fraction of your initial buy. You could constantly renew your statement with the Edition line and stay current. Ephemeral disrupting Eternal.

Now this would be an awesome strategy for disrupting the timepiece industry.

In my mind, I've been telling myself that I won't spend over $400 on a first-gen Apple Watch, no matter how badly I want the polished stainless steel model on black leather. But if Apple can guarantee some sort of trade-in program that'll make it easy to upgrade, hell yes, I'll consider spending over $500 on launch day.