Josh S: Apple FAIL. There's no place in the market for a $1000 iPod touch. It won't even fit in my pocket. This will be a bigger flop than the Air.
I disagree. Strongly.
// Warning: This is a ridiculously long chat. This is more to reflect on in three years time when one of us will be proven stupid.
10:30:45 Josh S: What do you think?
10:31:00 Mel: they haven't ecven announced the price yet, man
10:31:05 Mel: where'd you get $1000 from?
10:31:16 Josh S: it's what people are projecting
10:31:23 Josh S: if an iPhone is $400
10:31:28 Mel: people are dumbasses
10:31:32 Mel: they never get the details right
10:31:34 Josh S: dude
10:31:35 Mel: just watch
10:31:45 Josh S: even if it's $600
10:31:45 Mel: i'm guessing
10:31:52 Mel: $500, $600, $700
10:31:52 Josh S: it's just a blown up ipod touch
10:32:06 Mel: dude, you're only thinking about now
10:32:08 Mel: think in three years
10:32:15 Mel: the iphone went from $600 to $100
10:32:20 Mel: in three years
10:32:25 Josh S: right
10:32:29 Josh S: it's not revolutionary
10:32:37 Mel: heh, we'll see about that
10:32:44 Mel: apple does what microsoft doesn't do:
10:32:53 Mel: apple plans out an entire experience for the product
10:32:56 Mel: not just the hardware
10:33:00 Mel: they plan out the content
10:33:03 Mel: the software
10:33:08 Mel: the distribution of the content
10:33:18 Mel: they plan out an entire vertical market
10:33:28 Josh S: so would you pay a service to have this and your iphone?
10:33:35 Mel: when all that microsoft ever did was make the hardware and tell people, "build shit for us!"
10:33:45 Mel: apple is proactive in getting content partners
10:33:46 Josh S: you're looking at this on a micro level
10:33:51 Josh S: like a developer
10:34:15 Mel: um no, i'm looking from a business standpoint
10:34:34 Josh S: in 6 months there will be an alternative that will do the exact same things but at a quarter of the price
10:34:38 Josh S: it won't look as pretty
10:34:58 Mel: you're not thinkinga bout the experience
10:35:02 Mel: you're just thinking about cheaper hardware
10:35:05 Mel: by other people
10:35:10 Josh S: it wont fit in my pocket is what i'm thinking about
10:35:16 Josh S: so it's a lap top
10:35:16 Mel: it's not meant to
10:35:35 Mel: it's meant to chill around the house, passed around the living room
10:35:38 Mel: and thrown in your backpack
10:35:41 Mel: and taken to the office
10:35:51 Josh S: why
10:35:54 Josh S: I have a computer at my office
10:35:58 Josh S: it's a nice mac
10:36:05 Mel: and what about nurses that have to walk around
10:36:06 Josh S: and I have a nice mac laptop at my house
10:36:10 Josh S: dude
10:36:13 Mel: doing paperwork and shit on a clipboard
10:36:21 Josh S: any business will buy the cheaper alternative
10:36:21 Mel: also you're forgetting the educational field
10:36:26 Josh S: especially government buildings and hospitals
10:36:29 Mel: apple is talking to all of the major textbook companies
10:36:38 Josh S: lowest bidder
10:36:51 Mel: yes but the price of this thing will go down in three years
10:37:03 Josh S: i know how you're thought process is going, but you'll see i'm right
10:37:17 Mel: how much money did you spend on textbooks in college?
10:37:28 Josh S: the only thing this product will do is push other manufacturuers to give us comparable technology at more affordable prices
10:37:42 Mel: i remember spending $500 for one quarter
10:37:48 Josh S: you'll still have to license the books
10:37:50 Josh S: buddy
10:38:20 Mel: apple is working with publishing companies to change all the old media (newspapers, magazines, textbooks) -- all three which are dying industries -- and move them into the future
10:38:30 Mel: yeah, and that's why they're talking directly
10:38:33 Mel: with the publishing companies
10:38:47 Mel: the same way that apple got AT&T to bend over
10:38:55 Mel: when AT&T had never even seen the iphone
10:38:57 Josh S: and now AT&T is suffering
10:39:07 Mel: and the iphone is the most successful mobile phone
10:39:09 Mel: in the world.
10:39:17 Josh S: because as soon as teh iPhone is free for all
10:39:32 Josh S: mass migration from at&t even if they're not at fault
10:39:58 Josh S: this is not the iPhone!!!!!
10:40:01 Josh S: that's what I'm saying
10:40:02 Mel: the argument about AT&T is moot
10:40:06 Mel: we're talking about the success of the iphone
10:40:16 Mel: and how it's the same gameplan as the success of the ipad
10:40:17 Josh S: there is no market for this particular product among the general population
10:40:25 Mel: i agree
10:40:27 Mel: which is why
10:40:34 Mel: they partnered with all these companies
10:40:38 Mel: to invent a new market
10:41:17 Josh S: and what makes you think that education and hospitals will pick the iPad?
10:41:34 Josh S: would a hospital or school choose an iPhone now
10:41:49 Josh S: over a less costly alternative?
10:42:01 Josh S: it will be a bidding war
10:42:07 Mel: have you seen the business apps for the iphone?
10:42:15 Mel: businesses are committing to it
10:42:23 Mel: major enterprise softwware companies
10:42:31 Josh S: RIM still pwn's apple on that
10:42:36 Josh S: on business
10:42:42 Mel: and we'll see about that in 3 more years
10:42:47 Josh S: hahah
10:42:52 Josh S: yeah, we will
10:42:56 Mel: i'ma quote this
10:42:59 Mel: and post it in my blog
10:42:59 Josh S: good
10:43:03 Mel: this'll be fujn
10:43:52 Josh S: what's to stop a school from taking a toshiba for half the price of an iPad?
10:44:13 Mel: because toshiba won't have the content and content distribution of apple
10:44:28 Josh S: so you're saying apple will go monoplistic?
10:44:36 Mel: apple will dominate
10:44:38 Josh S: and control content
10:44:42 Mel: at least for 3 years
10:44:48 Josh S: dude
10:44:59 Josh S: it will take longer than that to get this integrated into systems
10:45:10 Josh S: by then, there will be hundreds of cheaper alternatives
10:45:16 Josh S: I dunno
10:45:22 Josh S: I'm not saying I know more than apple
10:45:25 Mel: once again, you're only thinking price of hardware
10:45:31 Josh S: I think this is a risky endeavour
10:45:39 Mel: you're not thinking of the entire experience that involves hardware, software and content
10:45:45 Josh S: yeah yeah
10:45:47 Josh S: i get that
10:45:57 Josh S: You're saying apple will partner with McGraw Hill
10:46:01 Mel: yes
10:46:04 Josh S: and say they can only licnese their books through apple store
10:46:09 Josh S: or whatever it will be
10:46:10 Mel: for now, yes
10:46:14 Mel: i personally ahte that
10:46:15 Mel: but yet
10:46:18 Josh S: so
10:46:19 Mel: *yes
10:46:20 Josh S: effectively
10:46:35 Josh S: you're forcing a college student, or, heaven forbid, a hospital
10:46:40 Josh S: to buy an apple product
10:46:42 Mel: yes
10:46:43 Josh S: because without it
10:46:47 Josh S: you will not get the info you need
10:46:53 Josh S: sounds like anti-trust to me
10:46:58 Mel: beacuse without it you will have to use shitty software and content on a cheaper system
10:47:02 Josh S: won't take long for the govt to step in
10:47:38 Mel: because it is monopolistic
10:47:42 Mel: because it is successful
10:47:53 Mel: you just supported my argument
10:47:54 Mel: haha
10:48:03 Josh S: it's a good idea
10:48:04 Josh S: yes
10:48:06 Josh S: but i'm saying
10:48:11 Josh S: it's not going to pan out the way your thinking
10:49:15 Mel: how else will it pan out?
10:49:32 Josh S: I don't think business will be so quick to jump on bored
10:49:41 Mel: define "quick"
10:49:43 Josh S: I think they'll wait and see how well it does in the market
10:49:49 Mel: how much time is "quick"
10:50:08 Josh S: however long it takes to define whether or not the iPad is a good investment
10:50:13 Josh S: marketing plays heavily into it
10:50:24 Mel: and apple is fucking king in marketing
10:50:32 Josh S: but there is no market for this product
10:50:39 Mel: hence they are inventing a market
10:51:03 Josh S: right, it will take a long time to prove the model is sucessful
10:51:17 Josh S: by then, a countless number of things will and can happen
10:51:41 Josh S: and when you bring government operations, hospitals and schools into this?
10:51:56 Josh S: I can guarantee that there will be intense scrutiny on how business is conducted
10:52:07 Josh S: it's a tightly regulated market
10:52:20 Josh S: if what you're saying is true
10:52:33 Josh S: and that it's more than just a private toy
10:52:38 Josh S: it's a huge risk
10:52:46 Josh S: I'm not saying it wont work, but it's a huge risk
10:53:02 Mel: and that's why apple is taking steps to make their software optimized for enterprise
10:53:04 Josh S: I personally don't think it will work
10:53:18 Josh S: I could be wrong, but it's not like this is going to sink apple
10:53:18 Mel: just like with the iphone, they introduced built-in support of Microsoft Exchange
10:53:28 Mel: and they offer remote security features
10:53:43 Josh S: oh
10:53:47 Josh S: i can also say
10:53:51 Josh S: why not make another iphone
10:53:59 Josh S: with all that licensing and garbage youre saying
10:54:10 Josh S: you don't think in 3 years, the iPhone will be able to handle everything you're talking about?
10:54:40 Josh S: what if we don't even have to have screens in 5 years, what if we have holograpic techology like the movies?
10:54:57 Josh S: all these what ifs
10:55:07 Josh S: the way this conference is going, looks to me like its a toy for people at home
10:55:09 Mel: the iphone is purely limited on size
10:55:26 Mel: of course it'll be much better, stronger, faster in three years
10:55:33 Mel: but they're fixed on that form factor
10:55:36 Josh S: not true
10:55:46 Josh S: these flex screens coming out now
10:55:53 Josh S: wrap around your wrist, etc.
10:55:57 Mel: *size of screens
10:55:58 Josh S: why not make a foldable iphone
10:56:10 Josh S: it's not impossible
10:56:19 Mel: and i'm sure apple is already looking into that
10:56:23 Mel: just as the iphone was a 6 year project
10:56:24 Josh S: right
10:56:30 Josh S: there is no market for this
10:56:33 Josh S: is what im saying
10:56:35 Mel: and this tablet is 20 years in the making
10:56:46 Mel: right, and i'm saying apple is inventing a new market
10:56:53 Josh S: it's like the Air
10:56:54 Josh S: it's for show
10:57:09 Mel: um no, the air is just dumb because it's ridiculously expensive
10:57:17 Mel: the air's only niche is
10:57:29 Mel: rich fucks that want a travel-light secondary computer
10:57:33 Mel: it's not meant to be a primary computer
10:57:38 Mel: it's an apple netbook, if you will
10:57:40 Mel: it's just dumb because
10:57:43 Mel: it's retardly expensive
10:58:03 Josh S: so you're saying what will make the difference here is the intro price?
10:58:10 Josh S: of this pad
10:58:26 Mel: what will make the difference?
10:58:35 Josh S: nothing
10:58:37 Josh S: its fate is sealed
10:58:39 Josh S: haha
10:58:42 Josh S: it will fail
10:58:50 Josh S: it may break even
10:58:55 Josh S: it may start a revolution
10:59:00 Josh S: but the iPad is destined to fail
10:59:08 Josh S: this is coming from a 25 year old advertiser...
10:59:23 Josh S: so take it however you want
10:59:27 Josh S: but, all im hearing
10:59:29 Josh S: from everyone around me
10:59:36 Josh S: is that it doesn't make sense
10:59:44 Josh S: it's a giant iPod
10:59:51 Josh S: and it's not worth picking up
10:59:51 Mel: yes, it is
10:59:54 Mel: a giant ipod
11:00:06 Mel: with ebook functionality, media functionality
11:00:09 Mel: gaming functionality
11:00:27 Mel: gaming and e-publishing are the biggest points about this device
11:00:29 Mel: over the iphone
11:00:42 Mel: and then the enterprise software
11:00:48 Josh S: dude
11:00:51 Josh S: one point is all i have
11:00:52 Mel: which we'll be seeing in a year or so
11:00:59 Josh S: i'm going to end on this
11:01:04 Josh S: the world runs on Microsoft
11:01:08 Josh S: and for a reason
11:01:15 Josh S: apple has always been about the consumer
11:01:17 Josh S: not about businesses
11:01:25 Josh S: you're telling me that they're changing their business model entirely
11:01:28 Mel: and that's something they've realized and they're changing
11:01:35 Josh S: I don't buy it
11:01:37 Josh S: not for a second
11:01:38 Mel: no, their business model has always been the same:
11:02:06 Mel: make money on premium prized hardware, and invent content, software and content distribution to facilitate purchasing of the hardware
11:02:10 Mel: *priced
11:02:11 Josh S: dude
11:02:20 Mel: apple barely breaks even on selling music
11:02:25 Mel: same with apps
11:02:33 Mel: they make all their money selling expensive ass hardware
11:02:53 Mel: but they use amazing software adn content partnerships as their killer advantage
11:03:11 Josh S: they will not be able to effectively monopolize content, especially information
11:03:19 Josh S: it will never happen
11:03:23 Josh S: unless they move to China
11:03:23 Mel: ia gree
11:03:30 Mel: same way they don't monopolize music
11:03:39 Mel: but they dominate in the hardware category
11:03:47 Mel: sure, people have hundreds of ways to get music
11:03:51 Mel: but
11:03:52 Josh S: fiiine
11:03:54 Mel: the iphone and ipod dominate
11:03:58 Josh S: no
11:04:07 Josh S: itunes dominates
11:04:11 Josh S: and I can have that on any platform I wish
11:04:40 Josh S: haha, this is an entirely different discussion
11:04:55 Josh S: I like how you're a brand ambassador for apple
11:05:02 Josh S: in my opinion
11:05:06 Josh S: i think this product
11:05:06 Mel: http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-10417825-37.html
11:05:09 Josh S: this one we're looking at
11:05:13 Mel: http://www.tuaw.com/2009/10/28/apple-iphone-closing-in-on-blackberry-market-share/
11:05:14 Josh S: will not be sucessful
11:05:30 Mel: help me interpret those numbers then
11:05:32 Josh S: that is my point
11:05:47 Mel: your point that apple is closing in on blackberry?
11:06:01 Josh S: hold on, work
11:10:39 Josh S: that's not a projection
11:10:44 Josh S: that's historical
11:10:58 Josh S: trend, yes, apple is catching up
11:11:08 Josh S: what makes you think the iPad will effect these numbers?
11:11:29 Mel: apple is inventing a new market, so it won't matter for at least a year
11:11:34 Josh S: and yes a 10% share is pretty dominant
11:11:35 Mel: it'll be it's own chart
11:11:54 Josh S: this "new market" of yours...
11:12:02 Josh S: when I see it, then we'll have the discussion
11:12:17 Josh S: as of now, we're looking at a very expensive toy that doesn't have a home
11:13:04 Josh S: are they rolling out this new market now as well?
11:13:59 Mel: yes, new market was invented today
11:14:09 Mel: it's not meant to be a phone
11:14:11 Mel: or a computer
11:14:14 Mel: it's a tablet device
11:14:54 Mel: it's a new category
11:15:05 Mel: (actually, it's an old old category but this is the re-invention of it)
11:19:25 Mel: $499
11:19:29 Mel: my friend
11:19:42 Mel: http://c0581892.cdn.cloudfiles.rackspacecloud.com/apple-tablet-keynote_177.jpg
11:25:01 Josh S: yeah
11:25:03 Josh S: without 3G
11:25:09 Josh S: so it's a giant iPod
11:25:12 Josh S: again
11:25:18 Mel: and again, that price will go down
11:25:29 Josh S: it's $700 for everything you need
11:25:32 Josh S: including the service
11:25:39 Mel: if it's for businesses, they won't need 3G
11:25:41 Mel: just wifi
11:25:47 Josh S: are you going to get one?
11:25:53 Josh S: not even the live blog people are impressed
11:25:53 Mel: i'll wait for 128GB
11:26:02 Josh S: yeah, 16gb?
11:26:07 Mel: right now it'll be early adopters taht'll jump on this
11:26:09 Mel: just like the iphone
11:26:11 Josh S: my phone has more than that
11:26:18 Mel: but once it gets cheaper, it'll be legit mainstream
11:26:28 Josh S: yeah, if it gets to about $200
11:26:30 Josh S: I'd get one
11:26:32 Mel: early adopters are willing to throw down $600 for a 8GB iphone when it came out
11:26:43 Mel: early adopters don't care about price
11:26:44 Josh S: iphone was revolutionary
11:26:44 Josh S: this
11:26:46 Josh S: not so much
11:26:50 Josh S: nothing "magical" about it
11:26:58 Josh S: it's a big ass iPod
11:27:04 Mel: i agree
11:27:10 Mel: but it comes down to the experience
11:27:13 Mel: of the software and teh content
11:27:16 Josh S: oh god
11:27:17 Josh S: here we go
11:27:32 Josh S: experience the 7 inch screen
11:27:33 Josh S: that's it
11:27:37 Mel: <---- i'm a software designer. user experience matters
11:27:50 Mel: it's not just about what a device can do, it's also about how easy it is to do it
11:27:50 Josh S: well
11:27:57 Josh S: we'll be able to tell in a few months if you are right
11:28:04 Josh S: because if it doesn't sell well
11:28:05 Mel: the iphone was a smartphone and smartphones have been around since the mid 90s
11:28:05 Josh S: they'll kill it
11:28:25 Josh S: and I just don't see smart people spending money on it
11:28:32 Mel: but when the price goes down
11:28:33 Mel: then what?
11:28:39 Josh S: dude
11:28:46 Josh S: haha
11:28:48 Josh S: actually
11:28:50 Josh S: i was just oging to say
11:28:55 Josh S: think of the R&D they have to make up
11:28:57 Josh S: then I just realized
11:29:04 Josh S: it's a big iPod...probably not much R&D
11:29:22 Mel: they invest a shit-ton in R&D
11:29:30 Josh S: right, so if it doesn't sell
11:29:33 Josh S: you kill it
11:29:37 Mel: watch, they're gonna put in RFID in these devices soon
11:29:40 Mel: that's a game changer
11:29:47 Josh S: you lower the price to get rid of the shit that never sold to recoup some costs
11:30:08 Mel: umm no, they use the R&D to provide the highest bang for your buck
11:30:15 Mel: so they can pass the price savings to the consumer
11:30:17 Josh S: yeah, I said
11:30:19 Josh S: if the product fails
11:30:29 Josh S: you sell it off to recoup costs
11:30:53 Josh S: there is no price savings to the consumer when it comes to apple
11:31:01 Josh S: it's high-end and it likes being there
11:32:01 Josh S: with 3G this thing is a big iPhone
11:32:10 Josh S: only my iPhone can sometimes make calls
11:32:24 Josh S: sometimes
11:32:40 Josh S: for the amount of press it's getting, I hope it does well
11:32:52 Josh S: we'll see in six months what unfolds
11:32:56 Josh S: should be interesting
11:34:20 Mel: yep, will be interesting
11:34:26 Mel: aight, i gotta go back to work
11:34:29 Josh S: haha
11:34:38 Josh S: $800 i can get a loaded lap top
11:34:45 Mel: i agree
11:34:46 Josh S: or a nice TV with a much biggers creen
11:34:49 Mel: i agree
11:34:49 Josh S: haha
11:34:59 Josh S: okay man
11:34:59 Josh S: seriously
11:34:59 Josh S: work
11:35:00 Josh S: peace
11:35:01 Mel: late
