9to5mac:

Here are the Apple Watch dimensions:

• 38 mm model: 38.6 x 33.3 x 10.5 mm
• 42 mm model: 42 x 35.9 x 10.5 mm

And here are some of the dimensions of popular Android Wear devices:

• Asus ZenWatch: 51 x 39.9 x 7.9 ~ 9.4 mm
• LG G Watch R: 53.6 x 46.4 x 9.7 mm
• Moto 360: 46 x 46 x 11.5 mm
• LG G Watch: 46.5 x 37.9 x 9.95 mm
• Sony SmartWatch 3: 51 x 36 x 10 mm
• Samsung Gear Live: 56.4 x 37.9 x 8.9 mm
• Huawei Watch: 42 x 42 x 11.3 mm

Since we're just beginning the Smartwatch 2.0 era and we're waiting to see if smartwatches will gain traction with the mainstream consumer, there are two important questions to ask:

• How many women will wear a smartwatch?
• How many women will pay to wear a smartwatch?

If the answer to the first question isn't favorable (at least a few million), there's no point in even asking about the second one.

So when I look at the dimensions of these Android Wear 1.0 watches, the question comes up: how many women will wear a masculine-looking gadget on their wrist that is over 46 mm?

Apple, on the other hand, has designed a watch in a size suitable for women. Now, I'm not saying that all women will buy an Apple Watch, but I bet there will be a hell of a lot more women in the Apple Watch corner than the Android Wear corner.

In response to reports of TAG Heuer looking into selling smartwatches, Matt Richman writes:

TAG Heuer’s smartwatch won’t sell. There’s no market for it.

Apple Watch requires pairing with an iPhone, and TAG’s smartwatch will need to pair with a smartphone to even have a chance of being as feature-rich as Apple Watch.

Apple isn’t going to re-engineer iOS for TAG’s benefit, so TAG’s smartwatch won’t pair with an iPhone the way Apple Watch does.

In order to have even stand a chance of being as feature-rich as Apple Watch, then, TAG’s smartwatch will have to pair with an Android phone. However, TAG wearers aren’t Android users. Rich people buy TAG watches, but rich people don’t buy Android phones.

I didn't even think about that. But another thought: how luxurious will Android Wear ever get?

If Android Wear makers don't go for luxury, they probably won't be very fashionable, which means we'll just be seeing more of what we already see right now — uber geeky watches that are too big and/or too masculine for the common female shopper.

If Android Wear goes for luxury, then, as Matt has pointed out, Android Wear makers would be trying to sell luxury smartwatches to a customer base that doesn't really appreciate luxury products.

Ben Bajarin on two possible scenarios for the upcoming smart watch market.

Scenario #1:

Apple had a near monopoly on the iPod/MP3 market. We can see a similar scenario playing out where Apple effectively “iPods” the smart watch category, maintaining dominant share over the next five to seven years. While the early success of the iPod was driven by Apple releasing iTunes for Windows, we don’t see the need for Apple to support other platforms in order to hold sway over the smart watch category. Apple’s existing iPhone customer base is large enough to keep it the foremost smart watch vendor and their smart watch platform as the reigning one in the smart watch category.

Scenario #2:

Another possible scenario is the smart watch category shapes up very much like the smart phone category. Apple succeeds at their goal to acquire the top 20% of the market and rake in the majority of the profits. While Android Wear, or another third party licensable smart watch OS, provides the software platform to the vast majority of hardware companies making smart watches.

In this scenario, the vast majority of Chinese and Hong Kong produced smart watches adopt Android Wear (or something else) and flood the market with very low cost smart watches. Also in this scenario, Swiss watch makers competing in the sub $1000 watch market start making smart watches because Apple Watch cannibalized nearly all the sales of Swiss-made watches in that price range.

I think Apple Watch will take 3-4 years to become a mainstream hit, but I don't think it'll be as huge as the iPod because it's currently designed to only work with iPhones. (Maybe in a decade we'll see Apple Watch mature into a legit standalone device, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.)

My big question is: will Android Wear ever appeal to enough women to become mainstream? I just can't imagine women buying into low-cost smartwatches. Well, maybe fitness bands. But most mainstream women don't wear fitness bands all day.

Either way, I'm bullish on smartwatches as a category and I'm bullish on Apple becoming the leader. Recruiting and convincing all of the right people in fashion, fitness, and medical industries will make all the difference.