"Would you rather buy this Apple tablet with lots of apps, or save $100 or so and get this black plastic thing with far fewer apps?" →

Benedict Evans:

That's a perfectly legitimate question to ask, and Christmas was one big A-B test as to what tablet proposition people actually want. However, what does it tell you if someone says 'I want to save $100 and get the cheap-looking one with no apps'? Are they a good target for any publisher or developer? This is at the root of the staggeringly low engagement on Android tablets that all publishers report - under 5% of what they see on the iPad: self-selection by the users. People who buy cheap tablets are effectively declaring that they value the saving over the apps.

There will always be some piece of the market for consumers that have very little expectations and needs from a device. But for everyone else, there is so much more to consider.

The question should never be limited to "which smartphone/tablet/computer has the best specs and price right now?" The real question is:

Which platform/ecosystem has the best future to invest in?

My iPhone 5 Predictions

If you haven't heard, tomorrow morning Apple will be hosting a media event to unveil the new iPhone. As an Apple geek, it is my duty to obsessively follow the Apple blogosphere like it's my job and and live my life one Apple event at a time, lol. Based on everything I've read, here are my predictions for what will be announced tomorrow.

First, let's cover the basics:

  • Faster. HD-quality front camera. More magical. "Thinnest iPhone EVAR." Makes bacon.

And here are other predictions going around all the rumor sites:

  • new design with more metal, less glass

  • 4-inch diagonal screen

  • 4G LTE.

  • thinner dock connector. USB 3.0.

  • headphone jack on the bottom.

  • available for sale on Friday, Sept 21st.

This one hasn't been talked about much in the rumor mill but I'm sticking with it:

  • same price points and same storage specs (16, 32, 64GB). Whoever started the "iPhone 5 will be $800" rumor deserves to be bitchslapped.

Okay, now for my actual, bolder predictions:

  • Super iPhone IV Alpha Turbo Tournament Edition

  • "iPhone with widescreen" — No "5". Everyone will keep referring to it as the iPhone 5, just as how everyone still refers to the iTouch. Hell, everyone keeps calling it "the iPhone" when Apple has always consistently referred to it as just "iPhone."

  • Bluetooth 4.0. This has been built into the 4S for the past year but I think Apple will make a big push to tightly intertwine the iPhone into our daily lives. This brings me to my next prediction…

  • Mobile Payments. I think Apple will pass up on NFC — just like they passed up Blu-ray — and will set out to make mobile payments mainstream with PassBook and Bluetooth 4.0.

  • iPod nano watch — a companion device leveraging Bluetooth 4.0 to give you push notifications and basic controls (play/pause/next) right on your wrist. A couple years ago, someone close to me went to China and visited Foxconn. This friend saw a bunch of prototypes, including an iPod Shuffle-like device that was meant to be a companion for the iPhone/iTouch. While I don't think this is exact prototype will ever make it into production, my gut says Apple will eventually release something along those lines.

  • Built-in water resistance. Rumor has it that Apple saw a demo of Liquipel and was amazed by it. I can see Apple trying to lock up a year-long exclusive on this technology.

  • AirPlay Direct for streaming to an Apple TV without a WiFi network. (Source)

And my final long shot prediction:

  • Tim Cook standing on stage, unveiling something totally unexpected, flicking off the crowd and saying, "SURPRISE, BITCHES. BWAHAH!" Okay, maybe not that far. But Cook vowed very publicly that Apple will "double down on secrecy" under his tenure. And as the mastermind behind Apple's supply chain, he would know the perfect places to leak fake parts.

That's all for now. We'll see tomorrow morning how piss-poor badly my predictions will be, lol. But no matter how wrong I am or what Apple unveils tomorrow, there is no doubt in my mind that this will be the best-selling product in Apple's history.

-Mel